Course Overview

This intensive introductory-level training is designed for professionals engaged in economic forecasting and policy analysis. Tailored for government and institutional staff involved with economic planning, the course focuses on equipping participants with the tools and methodologies necessary to construct and implement medium-scale macro-econometric models. Emphasis is placed on practical applications for policy development and forecasting within central banks, ministries, and international organizations.

Course Benefits

• Gain hands-on exposure to macro-econometric model evaluation and design
• Learn to forecast economic uncertainty and apply models in real-world policy contexts
• Understand and apply vector autoregression (VAR) and error correction models (ECM)
• Acquire skills to ensure logical and economic coherence in forecasting
• Enhance strategic planning capabilities within government and institutional roles

Course Modules

Module 1: Introduction

• Overview of macroeconomic modeling
• Relevance of econometric forecasting in modern policy

Module 2: Why Do We Forecast?

• Forecasting in decision theory
• Conditional vs. unconditional forecasting

Module 3: Criteria for a Good Forecast

• Statistical and non-statistical criteria
• Economic and logical coherence
• Model stability

Module 4: How to Forecast?

• Understanding statistical tools and the Lucas critique
• Integrating non-statistical evaluation methods

Requirements

To register, participants must provide:

• Passport Copy
• Curriculum Vitae
• Passport-size Photographs
• Full Course Fee Payment